Tuesday, September 5, 2017

Hurricane Irma. Hurricane Warning for Puerto Rico

Our home base in northeastern Fajardo, Puerto Rico

We are safe in our RV in Colorado.  Our boat is insured.  When we left the boat in storage in June, it was prepped for a hurricane.  We monitor the Caribbean weather daily.  We’ve been watching Irma since it was in the mid-Atlantic.  We've experienced a low-wind Tropical Storm & 70 kts at anchor, but this is our first time in the path of a hurricane.


Dry boat storage at Puerto del Rey

Irma's track has been adjusted south this morning and Puerto Rico has officially activated emergency hurricane plans.  We are officially freakin worried about our home island, that floods when it rains...

“...IRMA BECOMES AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS 
CAT 5 HURRICANE...
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...175 MPH...280 KM/H…
Hurricane-force winds extend outward 
up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center 
and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward 
up to 140 miles
(220 km)…”

NOAA wind forecast

Our hurricane plan:  s/v Odin is in dry storage at Puerto del Rey, Fajardo, Puerto Rico.  She's stripped and strapped down.  We chose Puerto del Rey because it is largely considered one of the safest storage yards in the Caribbean and is approved by our insurance company.

“Puerto Del Rey Marina provides excellent 
protection from hurricanes for 
mono-hull and catamarans. 
Underground hurricane-proof steel and 
cement structures are protected from the sea 
by 100,000 square meters of US NAVY 
controlled mangrove. A block-and-jack-stand 
support system is used within a 
network of strong tie-down points.”

Our location in the yard, back row next to a large powerboat

Hurricane monitoring:  We receive Chris Parker & NOAA weather forecast emails daily.  When there is a threat, we monitor the NOAA Tropical Storm Forecast every 6 hours.  There are several other websites that we follow also.

Officially the strongest hurricane in the Atlantic Basin

Hurricane Hugo:  Hurricane Hugo is the most talked about weather event in Puerto Rico.  It was part of the criteria when we chose our storage facility.  It was a Cat 5 approaching the islands, Cat 4 over St. Croix and a Cat 3 when it reached Puerto Rico (Cat 4 damage recorded on the ground).  You can read more here:

Sailors may remember that Hurricane Hugo is the storm that took Fatty Goodlander's boat Carlotta, while anchored in Culebra, Puerto Rico.  You can read an excerpt here:

Latest Chris Parker forecastN PR near SanJuan: ENE<NE@7-15<15-20k Today; then NE<N@15-20g25k overnight-Wed6 morning N@15-30<W@50-70k<SW@40-70k Seas 25-35’ Storm Surge 6-10’ Wed6 afternoon-Wed6 midnight; SW<S@40-70<S@30k Late Wed6 night-Thu7 morning then similar to Guadeloupe-Leewards Thu7 onward.  

Webcams:

Links:
Chris Parker
NOAA Hurricane:  http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Tuesday morning forecast, NOAA Hurricane Center, Public Advisory: (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/051742.shtml?)
000
WTNT31 KNHC 051159
TCPAT1

Hurricane Irma Special Advisory Number  25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017
800 AM AST Tue Sep 05 2017

...IRMA BECOMES AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE...
...PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA...

SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 57.7W
ABOUT 270 MI...440 KM E OF ANTIGUA
ABOUT 280 MI...445 KM ESE OF BARBUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...175 MPH...280 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...929 MB...27.44 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Dominican Republic has issued a Hurricane
Watch from Cabo Engano to the northern border with Haiti and a
Tropical Storm Watch from south of Cabo Engao to Isla Saona.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis
* Saba, St. Eustatius, and Sint Maarten
* Saint Martin and Saint Barthelemy
* British Virgin Islands
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe
* Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to the northern border with
Haiti

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe
* Dominica

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from south of Cabo Engao to Isla Saona

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. In this case, for some of easternmost islands, the
hurricane conditions are expected within the next 24 hours.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area in this case within 36
hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Dominican Republic, along with Haiti,
the Turks and Caicos Islands, Cuba, and the southeastern and central
Bahamas should monitor the progress of Irma.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the distinct eye center of Hurricane Irma
was located near latitude 16.7 North, longitude 57.7 West. Irma is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue today, followed by a turn toward the
west-northwest tonight. On the forecast track, the dangerous core of
Irma will move near or over portions of the northern Leeward Islands
tonight and early Wednesday.

Reports from NOAA and U.S. Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate Irma continues to strengthen and maximum sustained winds
have increased to near 175 mph (280 km/h) with higher gusts.  Irma
is an extremely dangerous category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some fluctuations in intensity are likely
during the next day or two, but Irma is forecast to remain a
powerful category 4 or 5 hurricane during the next couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The latest estimated minimum central pressure from aircraft data is
929 mb (27.44 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large
breaking waves will raise water levels by as much as 7 to 11 feet
above normal tide levels along the coasts of the extreme northern
Leeward Islands within the hurricane warning area near and to the
north of the center of Irma.  Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline.  The water is expected to reach
the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the
time of high tide...

British and U.S. Virgin Islands except St. Croix...7 to 11 ft
Northern coast of Puerto Rico...2 to 4 ft
Southern coast of Puerto Rico and St. Croix...1 to 2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area in the Leeward Islands by tonight, with tropical storm
conditions beginning later today. Tropical storm conditions are
expected within the tropical storm warning area where hurricane
conditions are also possible. Hurricane conditions are expected
to begin within the hurricane warning area in the British and U.S.
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Wednesday, with tropical storm
conditions beginning tonight. Hurricane and tropical storm
conditions are possible within the watch area in the Dominican
Republic by early Thursday.

RAINFALL:  Irma is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches across
the northern Leeward Islands, the British and U.S. Virgin Islands,
and Puerto Rico.  These rainfall amounts may cause life-threatening
flash floods and mudslides.

SURF:  Swells generated by Irma will affect the northern Leeward
Islands, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands
during the next several days.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.